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SJ County health officials fearful of Fourth of July festivities

Record - 7/2/2020

LODI -- San Joaquin County public health officials are bracing for the long Fourth of July weekend.

Gatherings among mixed households that mark the tradition are of great concern, as community spread has been determined the top cause for the recent explosion of positive cases and hospitalizations from COVID-19 in the county, the state and in many parts of the country.

"I'm really, really worried that people are going to have gatherings outside of their family members," San Joaquin County Public Health Services Officer Dr. Maggie Park said. "That's not supposed to happen."

Park said she will not budge from the state order: "You should not have any Fourth of July gatherings."

Stockton, Manteca and Lodi have canceled or postponed community outdoor fireworks shows.

"We still have a couple cities that are putting on fireworks shows, but they are saying you can watch in a car," Park said. "I'm really worried they aren't going to be able to see the fireworks without getting out of their car. I say don't do something that will tempt you not to follow the rules."

Park said the county cannot afford a repeat of Memorial Day weekend, May 23-25, when COVID-19 numbers, after remaining relatively flat, began to move in the wrong direction. Since May 23, total COVID-19 positive cases in San Joaquin County increased 503% from 777 to 3,914, as of July 1. Over the same period, hospitalizations countywide increased from 10 to 142. Testing has increased as well, but so has the positivity rate. San Joaquin County's rate of new cases, 163.3 per 100,000 residents over the past seven days, is far greater than the state threshold, 25, and the county's 12% positive testing rate is outside the state threshold, 8%, according to the California Department of Public Health. San Joaquin is one of 18 counties on the state's watch list.

Hospitals and forecasts

Area hospitals are in crisis, Park said. Beds are available but staffing levels are so low, an influx could mean discharging patients early or moving COVID-19 patients to more floors, which would further tax healthcare workers.

"Our hospitals are overflowing," Park said. "We don't want to kick out people just because we don't have the space. We're close to doing that. It's a problem we're really trying to juggle. It's all of our (seven) hospitals. Even if they aren't full, they are fuller than before and they're not used to this. COVID-19 is tough to treat. It's a huge burden on hospitals."

Chuck Davis, chief technology officer with Bayesiant, a private company that has developed the Proactive COVID-19 Response System, spends each day crunching numbers and developing forecast models related to the coronavirus. Part of his work involves pinpointing populations especially affected by a pathogen responsible for infecting more than 223,000 statewide and more than 2.6 million nationally. He said what we're seeing now is different than the early part of the pandemic.

"It's worse," he said. "It is worse. The pathogen is still here. The only thing that is changing is our behavior."

Early last month, Davis sent an email to friends and colleagues in which he correctly predicted spikes in positive cases and hospitalizations in advance of a second wave in 13 counties nationwide, including Miami-Dade County, Florida; Dallas County, Texas; Cook County, Illinois; Maricopa County, Arizona; and Los Angeles County. And he said with later spikes, contact tracing would be inadequate and limited, and regional shutdowns would be considered and possibly implemented. On Wednesday, Gov. Gavin Newsom backtracked on California coronavirus reopening and temporarily reclosed bars and indoor dining.

Since February, Davis has provided expertise to San Joaquin County Public Health Services and other public health agencies. For the first time, Davis said more young people that make up much of the labor force in essential sectors not only are being diagnosed with COVID-19 but are winding up in hospitals. If enough are quarantined or sick and unable to work, the labor supply and supply chain would be affected, potentially setting off consumer runs for essentials again.

"That's all very disconcerting," he said. "And it's a major, major issue."

On Saturday, while attending an outreach event for the Hispanic community in Lodi, which accounted for 67% of the city's new cases in June, Davis said the next five days would either bring an exponential phase or a flattening phase of COVID-19 cases locally and nationally.

"If we can get things under control, hopefully, we can get to a level phase and work our way down," he said. "If we don't then we're going to see this precipitous climb and at that point in time, you're now using your surge capacity and we'll be in a world of hurt."

Davis explained the clock is ticking before influenza season and COVID-19 comingle this fall. Coronavirus relies on what we do as a host and what we do with our behavior, he said. At first, people were afraid and took precautions. Then, people got fatigued when they needed to remain disciplined.

"We are in a situation where now we just have this preponderance of cases," Davis said, "and it didn't need to be."

Contact reporter Bob Highfill at (209) 546-8277 or jhighfill@recordnet.com. Follow him on Twitter @bobhighfill.

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